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Putin’s Pride Dented as India’s Moon Landing Highlights Russia’s Decline_我的网站

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原标题：英国给拜登"开后门"► 文观察者网熊超然已故英国女王伊丽莎白二世的葬礼将于当地时间9月19日举行，预计英国将在近期迎来大量外国贵宾的到来。

India this week celebrated landing successfully on the moon – a massive, globally recognized accomplishment years in the making and a demonstration of the country’s developing scientific and technological prowess. But in Moscow, which saw a similar high-profile attempt fail just days earlier, the victory rubbed salt into its recent wound.

India’s achievement meant it joined the U.S., China and the Soviet Union as the fourth country to land a spacecraft on the moon and highlighted its growing capabilities as a force in space.

Among the praise from world leaders, the Kremlin issued an official statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who dutifully offered his “heartfelt congratulations” to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian space program.

"This is a big step forward in space exploration and, of course, a testament to the impressive progress made by India in the field of science and technology," the statement read.

Yet for Putin, the achievement carries the consequence of further embarrassment. His own lunar mission came to an abrupt halt earlier in the week when a thruster fired for 43 seconds too long, ending a much-needed chance to assert Russian power and pride at home and abroad. And that was the beginning of a week in which he was forced to attend an international summit by videoconference for fear of arrest on an outstanding warrant for international human rights violations. It also preceded by days the suspicious sudden death of an emerging political foe. More broadly, the latest black eye comes as the 70-year-old autocrat is seeing challenges to his leadership for the first time in a nearly quarter-century rule, growing cynicism about his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, limited economic expansion prospects and a potentially destabilizing reelection bid next year.

Almost unavoidably, the setback in space would be seen by some as emblematic of the country’s larger struggles.

“Russia’s bedraggled space program mirrors the state of the nation itself, including the surprisingly poor performance of the Russian military in its war on Ukraine,” Leroy Chiao, a former NASA astronaut, wrote in an opinion piece. “Instead of making his nation a ‘great power’ again, Putin has shown the world just how badly Russia is in decline. The lamentable state of Moscow’s space program is just the latest confirmation of that.”

There were reasons to think the atrophy was not as severe. Russia, for the most part, has been a reliable partner on the International Space Station despite geopolitical tumult and for years was tasked with ferrying astronauts to and from the orbiting laboratory. Beyond that, major successes have been elusive – especially more recently.

Challenges for Russia’s space program include Western sanctions and an ongoing brain drain, according to Kari Bingen, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Aerospace Security Project.

“The Russians haven't done this in decades,” Bingen says. “The sanctions that have been levied against their aerospace industries and against their space program – they are having an impact. I'd also say there is a brain drain happening in Russia. Putin is sending his young people to fight an illegal war, not to go into the aerospace sector.”

The loss of bright minds to sustain the program “will have longer-term implications for their technical abilities but also for their standing as a space power within the international community.”

One of those implications is a pact signed in March 2021 by China and Russia to jointly explore the moon as they solidified a larger “no-limits” strategic partnership they would announce less than a year later. Russia’s ability to contribute to those efforts was questionable even before its most recent failure, which comes amid signs of cracks between Beijing and Moscow over Ukraine.

But, as importantly, it’s another dent in Putin’s ambition to project Russia as an international power. During the last decade, he pursued such a goal through meddling in foreign affairs like Russia’s intervention in Syria’s civil war, testing the defenses of the NATO alliance and interfering in the 2016 U.S. elections as well as working to undermine Western interests in hot spots like Iran, Afghanistan or North Korea. At home, Putin set out to foment nationalistic pride, spending fortunes on public infrastructure projects like roads and bridges and massive sports complexes surrounded by newly constructed villages to bring the world to Russia for events like the Olympic Games and international soccer’s World Cup.

With regard to space, Putin set out to build a state-of-the-art launch complex. But, perhaps foreshadowing the difficulties that would beset the Russian program, the project was plagued by cost overruns and endemic corruption widely reported within the country that saw the price balloon past $2 billion and dozens of officials fired or jailed before the facility even opened.

Now, with the value of the ruble having plunged and the war effort requiring an ever-growing capital commitment, the failure of the moon mission has proved just the opposite: a testament to Russia’s inability to compete globally as it works in the shadow of Soviet successes launching the first satellite, orbiting the first astronaut and successfully landing an unmanned spacecraft on the moon in the last century.

“Russia’s Cold War legacy will be just that – a legacy – unless they can actually do this themselves,” Victoria Samson, the Washington office director for Secure World Foundation, a nonprofit that promotes the peaceful exploration of outer space, told CNN.

Yuri Borisov, the head of Russia’s state-controlled space agency, blamed the fiasco on the long gap since its last lunar mission, which was in 1976, when Russia was a part of the Soviet Union.

“The negative experience of interrupting the lunar program for almost 50 years is the main reason for the failures,” Borisov said.

Others have pointed to systemic problems, like uneven and inexperienced leadership, the reliance on substandard building materials and chronically low salaries within the sector for various failures. And, of course, something as simple as foolish pride can’t be eliminated. Some speculated that Russia’s rush to beat India to the moon could have led it to ignore issues that arose during the mission.

“It looks like things weren’t going according to plan, but they decided not to change the schedule to prevent the Indians from coming first,” noted Vitaly Egorov, a popular Russian space blogger.

But it also shows just how difficult it is to land on the moon, given that this was India’s second attempt after a failed mission in 2019 following an Israeli moon mission that met a similar fate in 2019.

“India’s accomplishment today is a good reminder that space missions are risky and that the technology is hard,” Bingen says.

And not everyone characterized the Russian space program’s decline as so severe.

Henry Hertzfeld, a research professor of space policy and international affairs at George Washington University, says the country is still quite capable in space.

“It isn't easy," Hertzfeld says. “All nations run the risk of failure at one point or another.”

Despite the possible dent in Russia’s pride, Borisov said Monday that abandoning the lunar program would be “the worst decision” and that the country should commit to more space missions as the U.S., China and other nations weigh both the political, scientific and commercial advantages of a lasting presence on the moon.

Hertzfeld says he won't write off another moon landing attempt from Russia in the future.

“It comes at an awkward time for them with India being successful a few days later,” Hertzfeld says. “But I think given their history, given the history of the Soviet Union – they’ve landed on the moon before – it wouldn’t surprise me if they came back again at some point with another attempt.”

。然而，此前“不能率团”和“让外国元首乘商业飞机及坐集体大巴”等严格要求，也被许多外交官吐槽。有匿名外国大使就对媒体表示：“你能想象拜登坐在大巴车上的样子吗？”当地时间9月12日，英国《泰晤士报》进一步披露称，美国总统拜登将有权乘坐其“野兽”防弹专车前往威斯敏斯特教堂参加女王葬礼，法国总统马克龙等极少部分外国政要也可能获此许可，而其他一些国家的领导人则将必须乘坐英方指定的公共大巴车参加活动。《泰晤士报》报道截图据报道，英国女王的葬礼确定于当地时间9月19日11时在伦敦威斯敏斯特大教堂举行，这也是伊丽莎白二世举办登基仪式和婚礼的地点。这是英国自1965年前首相丘吉尔的葬礼以来，迎来的又一场堪称史无前例的后勤安排和外交活动，需要为最大规模的外国政要来访做好准备。

B | 预计届时将有100多位各国国王、王后和国家元首出席英女王葬礼，然而，大量贵宾的入境也给英国政府在后勤和外交层面带来麻烦，官员们也试图在满足外国贵宾需求和活动顺利举行之间取得平衡。按照安排计划，每个和英国有外交关系的国家所能派出参加葬礼的代表名额极为有限，而出于担心威斯敏斯特教堂附近出现交通堵塞，大部分贵宾都被要求在伦敦西部的一个未公开地点集中搭乘公共大巴车，“拼车”前往活动地点。

C | 不过，这其中也明显有例外情况。

D | 《泰晤士报》援引英国白厅（WhiteHall）消息人士报道称，出于安全考虑，已确认出席葬礼的美国总统拜登将被允许乘坐其被称为“野兽”的凯迪拉克防弹专车，前往威斯敏斯特教堂。除此之外，同样是出于安全考虑，包括法国总统马克龙、日本德仁天皇和以色列总统赫尔佐格也可能被允许乘坐各自的专车。一名英国政府消息人士还对媒体表示，要求七国集团（G7）领导人“挤大巴”显然是不合适的，但他又补充称，英方也正在要求各国政要尽可能地“灵活安排”。资料图：当地时间2021年6月13日，美国总统拜登与英国女王伊丽莎白二世在英国温莎城堡会晤。图自澎湃影像报道介绍称，预计将出席英女王葬礼的外国君主包括了比利时国王和王后、瑞典国王和王后、荷兰国王和王后、西班牙国王和王后。

E | 此外，已于2014年退位的西班牙前国王胡安·卡洛斯一世也将同其妻子索菲亚王后一起出席葬礼。

F | 除拜登和马克龙之外，已确认出席的其他外国领导人则包括加拿大总理特鲁多、澳大利亚总理阿尔巴内塞、新西兰总理阿德恩、南非总统拉马福萨和德国总统施泰因迈尔等。而因为英方表示“空间有限”，诸如特朗普等外国前领导人都不会受邀出席。综合美国“政客新闻网”欧洲版（politico.eu）、英国《卫报》、《独立报》等多家外媒9月11日的报道，它们获得了一份据称是英国外交部发给各国使馆的关于女王葬礼仪式的指导文件，其中包含了外国访客入境后的各项安排。《天空新闻》澳大利亚版形容这样的安排“相当严格”，甚至还有一些“令人惊讶的禁令” ：为了避免造成伦敦机场和交通拥挤，受邀出席的外国元首不仅被要求乘坐商业飞机抵达伦敦，参加葬礼时还不得使用元首专车，而是到集合点乘坐大巴车统一前往，就连葬礼场地也只允许领导人及其伴侣或配偶至多2人进入。